China unites America and Europe in alarm
A bronze briefcase bearing the initials RW has for some years stood outside the front door of Arvfurstens Palace in Stockholm, the seat of Sweden's foreign ministry. It is a symbol honoring Raoul Wallenberg who used his country's long tradition of neutrality to save thousands of Jews in Nazi-occupied Hungary with Swedish "protection passes" he had crafted before. Of late, four large flags also adorn the entrance hall. Three reflect Sweden's proud self-image as a champion of free trade, development aid, and international co-operation. These are the Swedish flag, the flag of the European Union, and the United Nations. The fourth is new: the flag of NATO, the defense alliance that Sweden joined last year. The country was jolted out of 200 years of neutrality by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Russian aggression led Sweden (preceded by Finland, which joined NATO a few months earlier) to bind its security, formally, to that of the American-led West. Sweden's resolve, and that of like-minded European governments, has been enhanced by how China behaved at an international forum. In late May, the Stockholm China Forum was held, a closed-door meeting of American and European officials, business executives, and analysts as well as Chinese scholars. These forums have been organized since 2008. This one, however, stood out for a convergence of views over the challenge that China poses to the global security and economic order.
Participants expressed alarm over China's support for Russia's arms industry. They reported the seeming indifference of Chinese leaders when told by Western visitors that help for Vladimir Putin's war machine undermines security in Europe. In fact, in their opinion, China has so far paid no real cost for its supplies of dual-use components that go into Russian missiles, drones, and tanks, the gathering heard. Instead, Chinese diplomats offer Europeans bland denials, Kremlin talking points about the West provoking the war, and what a participant called implicit hints that "you should be glad we are not doing more." Speakers described unsubtle Chinese attempts to split Europe from America and to play divide-and-rule among EU member countries. The forum heard of a Chinese visitor telling a European official, in effect: Donald Trump is back in the White House, Russia is winning on the battlefield, so why not dump Ukraine and come with us?
There was much talk of Europe's interests beyond its neighborhood. In an on-the-record speech to the forum, Sweden's foreign minister, Tobias Billstrom, called Russia's invasion an "irreversible turning point" for Sweden's foreign and security policy. He added that his country has a national interest in a stable Indo-Pacific, including in the Taiwan Strait. "If international law is called into question in one part of the world, that concerns all of us," explained the minister.
In EU debates about whether to impose tariffs on Chinese battery-powered cars and other green technologies, Sweden joins a free-market camp worried that France and other advocates of tariffs may trigger a full-blown trade war. But even free-trade champions like Sweden back "de-risking" with China, meaning measures to reduce dangerous dependencies that harm economic security. Alas, China has no intention of cooperating. Its ruler, Xi Jinping, calls it a useful deterrent for countries to be dependent on China. More broadly, he and his aides concede no ground when European leaders ask about overcapacity in key export sectors.
For all the signs of convergence between America and Europe, important differences may be seen. The EU calls China "a partner for cooperation, an economic competitor, and a systemic rival”. Yet, America's vision of relations with China has lost the word "partner." The Biden administration had tried to avoid conflicts and to coordinate work with China on climate change, drug-smuggling, and other global issues. However, examples of active cooperation are now rare. The forum also heard of ways in which political tensions could soar unpredictably, for example if Donald Trump appoints China hawks who release American intelligence on the wealth of Chinese leaders and their families, or impose entry bans on Communist Party officials. That would stoke fears in Beijing that America is bent on all-out regime change.
On each Atlantic shore, trust in China is falling. Despite that convergence, the Europeans see no way to stabilize the world without engaging with China as a partner. In contrast, America increasingly sees China as a bad actor whose ambitions will make the world worse. On the sunniest Stockholm day, storm clouds lurk.